Thursday, August 6, 2009
Green buck advocates firms on Morgan Stanley Disappointment
Japanese yen needs next drive for risk appetite
US Dollar facing a trend defining force
New Zealand Dollar
German Unemployment in 2009
When will US Dollar breakout?
Tough time continues for Japanese yen
Friday, July 31, 2009
Australian Dollar Hits Year-High after Central Bank Statement
Yen Rebound After U.S. Confidence Report
Dollar Rebounds Versus Euro on Reports Speculations
Brazilian Real Declines on Faltering Trade Surplus
Canadian Dollar Tumbles Again as Oil Slides
British House Price Data Influence Pound
Is GDP Optimism Bad for U.S. Dollar?
Saturday, July 25, 2009
The yen lost against all 6 major currencies as stocks continued a rally that is already the longest since 2003 on speculations that the global slump m

The dollar lost today against several emergent market currencies as North American companies like Apple Inc. posted higher-than-expected earnings, raising investors’ confidence to purchase emergent market currencies like the Russian ruble, and commodity linked currencies like the Canadian dollar.
USD/CAD traded at 1.0990 as of 20:10 GMT after peaking at 1.1105 in the intraday chart.
If you want to comment on the Canadian dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
Yen Declines as Stocks Rally Spurs Demand for Risk
Chilean Peso Hits One-Week Low on Copper Prices
South African Rand Climbs on Corporative Fusion Speculations
Euro Rises on Manufacturing Report Figures
Pound Slides on Quarterly Recession Numbers

The pound posted losses today versus most of the 16 main traded currencies as today, gross domestic product figures released in the United Kingdom revealed that the quarterly recession in the European nation was more than double of what economists forecast.
The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics posted a GDP report today that indicated a contraction of 0.8 in the British economy, which is more than double of what most of economists suggested, raising concerns that the recession in the country will be deeper and longer than what predictions assumed, reflecting directly in the attractiveness of the national currency. The British economy is having its worst 12-month period since the second world war, as a credit crunch struck nation’s economy, followed by political crisis in the parliament, and a severe devaluation of the pound versus main currencies like the euro and the dollar. Today’s figures suggest that the situation will remain grim in the economic sphere for the United Kingdom.
Surprised economists affirm that even if they were expecting negative figures for the quarterly gross product in the U.K., the actual numbers were more than disappointing, raising immediate concerns about the British economic situation, damping demand for the pound and influencing negatively in British equity markets.
EUR/GBP traded at 0.8652 as of 12:30 GMT from 0.8610 yesterday. GBP/USD traded at 1.6460 from 1.6515 in the intraday comparison.
If you want to comment on the Great Britain pound’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
The Canadian dollar ended another day gaining versus its U.S. counterpart, as government officials affirmed that the country may be already getting ou

The Mexican currency posted another week of gains versus its main trading partner’s currency, the U।S. dollar, as emergent-market currencies profited on higher confidence among traders.
Reports mainly in Europe this Friday indicating that the German business confidence improved, triggered speculations that the region may be soon out of recession, and consequently favoring emergent-market currencies worldwide, like the Mexican peso and the South African rand. Thanks to favorable reports, the Mexican peso finished a second week of gains versus the greenback.
USD/MXN traded at 13.2265 as of 19:47 GMT from 13.1975 yesterday.
If you want to comment on the Mexican peso’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below
Canadian Dollar Ends Week High on Government Statement

EUR/USD has risen continuously after the pair fell to 1.4185. Since then the Euro moved with an upside bias and reached levels above 1.4230. The Euro was able to recover of previous losses during the American session. The pair is still moving sideways without a clear trend for the day and is 0.55% above the opening price, rising for the first time in four days. Against the Pound, the Euro is stronger today. EUR/GBP rallied to the upside after reports show a bigger than expected contraction in the United Kingdom. The pair is holding above 0.8600 and has recovered from Wednesday and Thursday losses
Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bearish
Looking ahead to next week, the most immediate threat to the greenback’s stability is the intensity and direction of risk appetite. While this currency is deeply mired in speculation surrounding the economy’s leading or lagging growth potential, interest rate expectations, and deficit projections among other influences; risk appetite has proven itself to be insuperable. With the Federal Reserve vowing to keep the benchmark lending rate at levels that insure a carry status when conditions do turn around and politicians ensuring the economy will struggle with record levels of debt for years to come, there seems little doubt that the dollar will maintain its position on the opposite of risk appetite. But, considering the stalled progress most of the dollar and yen crosses saw last week; is there a strong shift in sentiment in the works? With EURUSD and GBPUSD just off of key levels of resistance, the pressure is growing. However, the primary source of momentum this past week – the second quarter earnings season – is already on the decline. If left up to the markets alone, equities have already forged new highs for the year; but commodities, fixed income and risk-sensitive currency pairs have not pushed to comparable levels. Oddly enough, one of the most likely catalysts for risk going forward also happens to be the most attention grabbing indicator on the US docket: GDP.
According to economists forecasts, the world’s largest economy contracted at a 1.5 percent on an annualized pace through the second quarter. This would be a marked improvement from the 5.5 percent and 6.3 percent rate of the recession through the first quarter of 2009 and fourth quarter 2008 respectively. This would certainly confirm policy officials expectations for a return to positive growth by the end of this year or beginning of the next; but through the near-term it is still a call for speculation to rank the economy’s performance against that of its major counterparts. China recently reported a sharp advance to a 7.9 percent pace of expansion while the UK printed a record 5.6 percent contraction. And, then there are still those economies that have yet to report their numbers. Japan suffered a record-breaking 14.2 percent slump through the first quarter, but is expected to snap back according to BoJ and Cabinet officials. The Euro Zone awaits it August 13th release, but the Bundesbank has already stated Germany saw only a ‘slight contraction’ through the second quarter. This will increasingly become a consideration of nuance.
The other facet of the US 2Q GDP release is that it will be accepted as a gauge of global growth. This further complicates the issue. Should the reading be good, the influence on risk appetite could outweigh the implications for US returns and actually drag the dollar down; and vice versa. Another important consideration is the timing of this release. Due Friday, speculators may decide to move the dollar before the data crosses the wires. If this is the case, the GDP report could factor into long-term projections but not short-term volatility. –JK
Standard + Poor's has put the UK credit rating on negative watch which has pushed the UK currency sharply lower
26-05-09. US confidence rises
27-05-09. US home sales rise.
28-05-09. Jobless claims fall
29-05-09. Weak Chicago PMI.
01-06-09. ISM rises
03-06-09. UK PMI rises
04-06-09 BOE on hold
05-06-09. Payrolls surprise.
09-06-09. Sterling recovers
Lower capital inflows.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Euro Continues Rally Against U.S. Dollar on Risk Appetite
Canadian Dollar Down as Crude Oil Declines
Mexican Peso Falls Again on Crude Oil
Yen Rises After Hotel Blasts in Indonesia
Pound Declines as Terrorist Attack Drives Traders to Safety
Chilean Peso Climbs on Copper Price
Brazilian Real Posts Biggest Gain in Two Months on Optimism
Dollar Slides as Optimism Attracts Investors to Yield

The U.S. dollar posted the weakest performance versus the euro since May as corporate earnings in North America came better-than-expect and U.S. government reports brought optimism to equities and currency markets, attracting investors to high-yielding options, consequently damping demand for the greenback.
Pound Strengthens on House Prices Climb
Australian Dollar Hits Two-Week High on Stocks
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Monday, July 13, 2009
Japanese stocks down, yen holds steady
Trichet: ECB's Toolkit Is Up To The Challenge
Japan Govt: Consumer Sentiment Index 37.6 Jun Vs 35.7 May
Friday, July 10, 2009
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.10.2009

The USD and JPY rose as speculation mounts that the global recovery is faltering.The JPY has been the main benefactor-as investors seek refuge from the weakened world economies.
World equity markets were lower, and US futures are also lower as speculation continues that the global recovery will be slower than originally predicted.
Oil:$59.58 Gold:$908.40
Today’s Data:Trade Balance: exp: -$30.0B prior: -$29.2BImport Prices: exp: 2.0% prior: -17.6%U Of Mich: exp: 70.0 prior: 70.8
HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAT WEEKEND-GOOD LUCK
SNB verbal intervention sends the Swiss Franc lower


SNBs Roth was on the wires last night and reiterated the central banks policy of “sticking decidedly to its policy on the franc” and that he does not want “any further appreciation of the Swiss Franc”. The verbal intervention, led to a steady rise in the USDCHF and the EURCHF.
NY has come in and moved the price lower. The current price has just tested the 61.8% retracement of the days range (1.5135 is the level). I would expect to find support at these levels as the threat of actual intervention becomes more and more likely. A stop below…
US Trade Balance comes in at higher than expectations
Exports rose by 1.6% while imports fell by -0.6%.
The Real or inflation adjusted Trade Balance also improved to -36.182B from -40.063 B in April. The real Trade Balance is what is used to calculate GDP. A smaller deficit is a net gain for GDP.
Meanwhile Canada Trade Balance had a worse than expected Trade deficit of -1.4B. This is the largest deficit on record. Imports fell by 3.5%. Exports fell by -6.9%.
More on EURCHF chart analysis

On the intraday 5 minute chart, the pair has moved between the 200 bar at 1.5134 and the 100 bar MA at the 1.5147 level. Since the break lower in NY these extremes have held the price action. A break above or below may give some short term clues to the intraday direction.
I still would be concerned about the threat to intervention however to support the currency pair.
GBPUSD being pressured with support tested again
Univ of Michigan came out worse than expected
Overall, the report is weak and suggest the consumer is starting to feel more pressure as employment continues to be an issue and balance sheet rebuilding will take longer than expectations.
The dollar has gotten stronger after the report on flight to quality flows. The USDJPY has declined as has the Yen crosses as short term traders exit the riskier trades.
Summary of Trading the News
"Trading the Numbers"
This seems to be a more preferred method by many, in that you determine whether or not the news report is worth trading at all – a lot less risky than straddles.
First, you must determine the significance of the news report being released. Not every news report release is tradeable; either it wouldn’t cause a stir in the market, or that the initial volatility would be so crazy that it would be too dangerous to enter a trade.
Ask yourself what kind of environment the market has been in recently. In other words, what has been affecting the market lately?
For example, maybe the Federal Reserve has been concerned with inflation. In this scenario, any inflation-related data (consumer price index, hints on future monetary policy) would be closely watched by the Fed – and what the Fed is watching, traders are watching. Any news reports of this level may be great opportunities to trade, as long as you are conscious of the risks.
Straddles
Straddles are really easy to set up and require very little thinking, but it is probably the riskiest method of trading the news. To set up a straddle, you basically put a limit order to go long a few pips above the market before a news report, and simultaneously put in a limit order to go short a few pips below the market. If the report creates enough volatility your orders will be automatically triggered, and your stops and profit levels will also be automatically executed if hit. Simple as that.
Again, it sounds easy, but be very cautious with this method in that both long and short orders can be triggered, and if profit targets and stops are set incorrectly, you can be stopped out for maximum loss on both orders. Also, you run the inherent risks of slippage.
Spreads
Volatility/ Whipsaws
During major news reports and economic releases the market can swing 20 to 50 pips in a second! News volatility can be very dangerous, even for experienced traders. You may catch the strong initial move, but like so many times in these situations, it can turn against you into a losing trade just as fast.
Order Freeze
Trade Forex at Your Own Risk
Before I pursue anything, I like to know exactly what I’m getting into. The same especially goes for trading. We’ve heard the benefits and why we should “trade the news,” but more importantly we should know the risks.
Slippage
Market volatility can increase geometrically during news releases, which means the price can move as little as 5 pips to 20 pips (or even 50 pips and more during major news releases) in the matter of seconds. If you try to get your order filled during this type of volatility, you will probably get filled at a much different price than you anticipated. This is especially risky with limit entry orders.
For example, I once placed an order with a broker (one that guaranteed fixed spreads, but not execution) 15 minutes before a major news release on EUR/USD. Right before the release, the market was at 1.2320. I set my limit order to go long at 1.2360, with a profit level of 1.2383. The news came out bad for the U.S. dollar, which caused the market to shoot up 80 pips as soon as it was released. My long order was triggered, but unfortunately, I got filled in at 1.2390 – 30 pips above my limit price!! After the market settled for a bit, my profit target price was executed at a loss because it was set below the price at which I got filled in. Fortunately, it was only a 7 pips loss, but it was a costly lesson learned.
Things to Know When Trading News Reports
Now that we know “how” and “when” you can trade news reports, there are a few key concepts you should know before placing your first news trade.
- While the actual news number or report is essential to the long-term movement of a currency pair, in the short-term the difference between the market expectations and the actual release is what causes potential breakout opportunities. This means economic numbers and reports that come out as the market expected generally do not cause a strong market reaction.
- The quieter the market is before a news release, the more the market is poised for a significant move. Think about it: In a quiet market, less and less traders are buying and selling, possibly waiting for some sort of catalyst (like a news report maybe?). When this “catalyst” takes place, all of these traders waiting on the sidelines jump in at the same time causing a huge move in the market. So, the more traders wait (the quieter the market), the more will jump in after a news report (huge pips and a new Ferrari, right?).
- Depending on the significance of the economic report, and the amount of deviation of the actual to the forecasted number, news breakout opportunities are generally short-lived and may last for only a few minutes or even a few seconds. Trading news releases may be better suited for scalpers and day traders.
Tradeable Reports
With all of these countries to choose from, there are easily five to ten economic news releases almost every day! Also, the great thing about focusing on news releases is that they are scheduled in advance, so you know exactly when you can schedule your trading hours.
You may be thinking that five to ten news releases per day may be a lot to keep up with, but you really do not have to pay attention to every single report – you can pick and choose. There are a few key reports, most of which come out every month, that produce a significant amount of pip movement.
For this lesson, we will focus on U.S. news and economic reports, mostly because the U.S. dollar is involved in a majority of currency trades, and therefore tends to have the most significant impact on the currency markets. Here is a list of some of the top U.S. market moving reports:
- Employment Growth
- Interest Rate decisions
- Trade Balance
- Gross Domestic Product
- Retail Sales
- Durable Goods
- Inflation reports (Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index)
- Foreign Purchases report (TIC Data)
Every country has a set of major reports similar to this list and can be as potentially volatile. Again, since these reports are scheduled in advance there are plenty of websites on the Internet with schedules and potential volatility rankings.
Tradeable Reports
With all of these countries to choose from, there are easily five to ten economic news releases almost every day! Also, the great thing about focusing on news releases is that they are scheduled in advance, so you know exactly when you can schedule your trading hours.
You may be thinking that five to ten news releases per day may be a lot to keep up with, but you really do not have to pay attention to every single report – you can pick and choose. There are a few key reports, most of which come out every month, that produce a significant amount of pip movement.
For this lesson, we will focus on U.S. news and economic reports, mostly because the U.S. dollar is involved in a majority of currency trades, and therefore tends to have the most significant impact on the currency markets. Here is a list of some of the top U.S. market moving reports:
- Employment Growth
- Interest Rate decisions
- Trade Balance
- Gross Domestic Product
- Retail Sales
- Durable Goods
- Inflation reports (Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index)
- Foreign Purchases report (TIC Data)
Every country has a set of major reports similar to this list and can be as potentially volatile. Again, since these reports are scheduled in advance there are plenty of websites on the Internet with schedules and potential volatility rankings.
When are News Releases uh Released?
| Symbol | Country | Time (GMT) |
| USD | United States | 13:30 - 15:00 |
| EUR | Germany | 07:00 - 11:00 |
| EUR | France | 07:45 - 09:00 |
| EUR | Italy | 08:45 - 10:00 |
| JPY | Japan | 23:50 - 04:30 |
| GBP | Great Britain | 07:00 - 09:30 |
| CHF | Switzerland | 06:45 - 10:30 |
| CAD | Canada | 12:00 - 13:30 |
| AUD | Australia | 22:30 - 00:30 |
| NZD | New Zealand | 21:45 - 02:00 |
Which Pairs Should I Trade?
Here is a list of the top currencies and countries in which you should focus on for news trading:
| Symbol | Country | Currency | Nickname |
| USD | United States | Dollar | Buck |
| EUR | European Union | Euro | Fiber |
| JPY | Japan | Yen | Yen |
| GBP | Great Britain | Pound | Cable |
| CHF | Switzerland | Franc | Swissy |
| CAD | Canada | Dollar | Loonie |
| AUD | Australia | Dollar | Aussie |
| NZD | New Zealand | Dollar | Kiwi |
Now, there are plenty more currencies available to trade, but this list is based on the size of each country’s economy, frequency of news releases and the trading liquidity of their currency.
Why Trade the News?
Trading news releases can be a significant tool in your trading arsenal. If you want, it can be your only weapon altogether. Economic news reports often spur strong short-term moves in the market, which are great trading opportunities for breakout traders. And with the forex being open 24 hours a day and a true worldwide market, there are plenty of opportunities almost every trading day to catch market volatility (aka a lot of pips!) kicked off by an economic news report.
Trading the News
Trading the news is becoming a popular technique to trade the forex markets … and why shouldn’t it be? Time and time again you see currency pairs move 50 to 100 pips within minutes or even seconds after a major news release. When you see that, I bet you’re thinking, “50 to 100 pips!? That’s easy money!” Maybe it is, and maybe it isn’t. It all depends on how prepared you are to trade a news release.
The goal of this lesson isn’t to give you a specific “Trading the News” strategy. The goal is to point you in the right direction and show some of the risks involved with trading these events, because here at BabyPips.com, we want to help you help yourself in developing your own methods that fit YOU best .
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Yen Climbs on World Economic Recovery Delay
Mexican Peso Down After Elections
Euro Falls After Luxembourg Minister Statement
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